This is the Engineering Culture Podcast, from the people behind InfoQ.com and the QCon conferences.
In this podcast, recorded at the Agile New Zealand conference, Shane Hastie, InfoQ Lead Editor for Culture & Methods, spoke to Kaila Colbin from the Ministry of Awesome and Singularity University.
Key Takeaways
- The nature of technological innovation and the implications for society
- The doubling curve which shows how innovations advance (eg Moore’s Law)
- The doubling in price-performance trend applies to any technology once it becomes information enabled
- The convergence of multiple technologies which are on a doubling curve
- Technology advances because of usefulness – the more useful something becomes the more we invest in it
- These technologies need a more robust conversation than what we are currently having in society
- The ethical obligations of programmers – consciously exploring the implications of the work that we do; will the code we write have a net contribution to humanityEven if your job is safe – what is the implication of living in a society with massive inequality, political and social unrest and economic instability?
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Show Notes
0m:30s Introductions
0m:50s Overview of Singularity University
1m:25s Three insights which define the thinking:
1m:35s (1) Ray Kurzweil’s take on Moore’s Law – the price performance of computing is doubling approximately every 18 months, irrespective of the underlying technology
2m:35s (2) This doubling in price-performance trend applies to any technology once it becomes information enabled
3m:50s (3) There are a whole range of technologies which are reaching an inflection point, and starting to converge. This convergence opens up endless new possibilities
4m:30s An example – taking gene sequencing pairing it with machine learning to extract knowledge from the gene sequencing which would not otherwise be discoverable
5m:05s Moore’s law coming to an end IRO transistors
5m:50s Understanding the implication of doubling steps - 30 linear steps takes you 30m in a direction, 20 doubling steps will take you 26 time around the earth, yet at step 29 you will only be half way to the end
6m:45s How this impacted the human genome project, originally estimated to take 15 years and cost $3BN. After 7 years they had only sequenced 1% of the genome and spent approx. 50% of the budget. Kurzweil saw this as “half way there” because of the doubling curve and this turned out to be correct
8m:10s As technologists we need to change the way we forecast to take these phenomena into account, advances are not linear
8m:30s The impact of machine learning – the example of AlphaGo and why it is not about a computer beating a human but it is a catalyst for more accelerated progress
9m:30s Technology advances because of usefulness – the more useful something becomes the more we invest in it
10m:05s How using machine learning with gene sequencing allowed the discovery of genetic markers for depression
11m:40s Using machine learning and artificial intelligence to turn massive quantities of data into useful information and that information into wisdom
12m:10s There are pros and cons – for example dealing with privacy issues and exposing historical information
13m:25s The Internet of Things contributing to connectivity and big data
14m:35s Risks and caveats with IOT and connected devices
15m:45s An example of a connected blood sugar monitor which allows parents to know the state of a child’s insulin & glucose levels remotely
16m:35s These technologies need a more robust conversation than what we are currently having in society
16m:50s Bringing a SingularityU summit to New Zealand – a broad overview of a collection of exponential technologies and their potential impact
18m:35s Every person in the world will be effected by the progress of these technologies
18m:45s Hard questions about the implications in areas such as ethics, culture and society need to be explored
19m:40s The future of work for the technologists who contribute to these technologies
19m:50s The ethical obligations of programmers – consciously exploring the implications of the work that we do; will the code we write have a net contribution to humanity?
20m:55s The future of work – 47-81% of jobs as we currently understand them under threat from technology
21m:30s There is greater polarisation and greater inequality in the workplace as technologies are adopted. Many of the new jobs are lower value than those which are being lost
4m:50s The implication of jobs shifting in location – what will happen to the communities which are dependent on the current jobs. New jobs are more concentrated in cities and are impacting the survival of rural communities
23m:30s Even if your job is safe – what is the implication of living in a society with massive inequality, political and social unrest and economic instability?
24m:00s The need for and discussion about Universal Basic Income
25m:10s The duties of citizens – our commitments and obligations as members of a society
25m:40s Universal Basic Income is only one tool and problem is much bigger than a single tool – humans need meaning and dignity as well as income
26m:40s We need to come up with a completely new framework for defining and measuring our sense of worth as society changes
Mentioned:
- Agile New Zealand conference
- Singularity University
- Ministry of Awesome
- Ray Kurzweil
- Human Genome Project
- AlphaGo
- 23andMe
- Frey & Osborne research into the future of work
- Universal Basic Income
- TEDx Christchurch – Raf Manji on Universal Basic Income
